Rishi Sunak’s most prominent cabinet ministers are currently facing a challenging battle to retain their seats in Parliament following the announcement of a General Election by the prime minister. Noteworthy figures include Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, both defending narrow majorities from the previous election. Reports from Tory election strategists have indicated that MPs with majorities less than 15,000 may be at risk of losing their constituencies, although some skepticism exists regarding the accuracy of this claim.
A forecast by polling company YouGov in April utilizing the multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) method based on data from the end of March suggested that several Cabinet ministers could be among the estimated 200 Conservative losses in the upcoming election. Among these ministers facing a tough reelection campaign include Jeremy Hunt, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, and Grant Shapps, the Defence Secretary. Despite their past victories, these ministers are now confronted with the challenge of maintaining their seats amid a shifting political landscape.
Other Cabinet ministers such as Simon Hart, Johnny Mercer, Alister Jack, Penny Mordaunt, Victoria Prentis, Alex Chalk, David TC Davies, Gillian Keegan, and Lucy Frazer are also highlighted as facing potential difficulties in retaining their constituencies. Significant boundary changes and predictions from YouGov indicate possible losses for these ministers to opposition parties such as Labour and the Liberal Democrats. The upcoming General Election is poised to test the political resilience of these Conservative Cabinet members as they navigate the uncertain terrain of electoral contests and strive to secure their positions in Parliament.